ARC Raiders Aggression-Based Matchmaking Explained

ARC Raiders aggression-based matchmaking is real. Embark just doesn’t call it that, and it works nothing like the two-bucket system most players picture. The game keeps a running read of how you treat other Raiders, puts it on a sliding scale, and makes it more likely (never certain) that you share a lobby with people who play the way you do. Since July that read has been split by squad size, and Embark is currently testing a version where only the fights you start count at all. Below: what the developers have actually confirmed, word for word, what the community has simply made up, how solo and squad queues differ, and a playstyle-to-lobby table so you know what to bring.

This is checked against Live Update 1.45.0 and Embark’s Frozen Trail announcements (Frozen Trail lands October 8), last checked September 2026. Matchmaking is the one system Embark has touched in almost every update this year, so the timeline below matters as much as the rules.

What Embark has actually confirmed

Every major claim about the system now has a named developer behind it, which is rare for matchmaking. Here is the paper trail, in order.

First came the confirmation. Over the winter, Embark CEO Patrick Söderlund told GamesBeat that ARC Raiders does exactly what players suspected: “We also matchmake now on how prone you are to PvP or PvE.” In the same interview he added the caveat everyone forgets to quote: “Obviously, it’s not a full science.” Asked how a squad with one pacifist and two gremlins gets matched, his answer was an honest “I actually don’t know.”

Design director Virgil Watkins then spent January walking the label back. To GamesRadar+ he called “aggression-based” “a bit of a misnomer,” said the system does not “attempt to assume intent,” and described it as “a bit of a blunt instrument.” To PC Gamer he was blunter: “there’s no such thing as a friendly lobby or an aggressive lobby, the system is still mixing everybody.” He also said the post-match surveys have “no mechanical change” on your matches, and that Embark does not “do anything like skill-based matchmaking or gear-based matchmaking.”

In May, Embark published Notes on The Matchmaking System, the closest thing to a rulebook we have. It names two goals: fairness (match players with a similar likelihood of succeeding, and equal squad sizes where possible) and enjoyment (match similar playstyles). Your playstyle across previous rounds is “one of the strongest” factors, it sits on a continuous scale, and two rules govern it: similarity is “more likely, not guaranteed,” and your behavior shapes future lobbies “gradually.”

Through the rest of 2026 Embark has shipped four changes worth knowing:

• May 20: defending yourself stopped counting the same as starting a fight (reduced weight), and low-activity rounds, like spawning in and surrendering, weigh less in your history.
• Live Update 1.36.0, July 7: playstyle is tracked separately for Solo, Duo and Trio.
• 1.38.0, July 21: an algorithm test that matches playstyle and squad size more consistently, at the cost of slightly longer queues.
• Live Update 1.39.0, July 28: a test where defensive PvP carries no weight at all. Only fights you start count.

How your playstyle is measured

The system reads two things: who started the fight and how serious it got. The Live Update 1.39.0 notes are the most detailed public description Embark has given, and they spell out three rules:

• Who started it: the squad that damages, downs or knocks out a member of the other squad first started the fight. If that happens to one of your squadmates, your whole squad counts as defending.
• How much it counts: a drawn-out firefight with lots of damage and downed Raiders weighs heavily. A stray accidental hit, or a short exchange where the other squad runs after minimal damage, still counts as starting a fight but weighs far less.
• Third-partying: jumping into a fight between two other squads that is already underway counts as starting a fight. The vulture move is logged as aggression, which will upset exactly the people it should.

Embark’s myth list rules out several inputs outright. Looting knocked-out players does not count. Your loadout does not count, and Embark says it does not scale lobby difficulty to what your kit costs. Patches do not reset your profile. The end-of-round survey is not a “next lobby” lever. Turning crossplay on or off changes the pool and the queue time, not the tone of the round. And one shot or one kill will not flip you anywhere, because the system looks at patterns over time.

Confirmed vs community theory

Most of the confusion comes from treating Discord folklore as patch notes. Here is where each popular claim actually stands:

Solo vs squad queues

Squad size is now the cleanest lever you have. Since 1.36.0 you effectively carry three separate reputations. Before July, a friendly solo player who ran trios with two trigger-happy friends dragged both profiles toward the middle. Now Embark tracks Solo, Duo and Trio on their own, and its own example is exactly that player: friendly questing and plant-picking in solos, full PvP in trios, no bleed between them.

Two things carry over from the old rules. Squads are matched on a combined profile where every member counts and the leader has no extra weight, so one bloodthirsty duo partner will pull your duo lobbies with them. And fairness still pushes equal squad sizes together where possible, which is why solos mostly meet solos. In practice, solo is where the playstyle effect is most visible. We see it on our own runs: a solo quest session on a fresh Raider tends to feel noticeably calmer than a trio session farming the same map an hour later, where the first gunshot usually starts a small war. For how to play the solo side well once the lobby calms down, our solo extraction guide covers routes and exits.

The 1.38.0 change also has a cost worth knowing: in low-population regions or off-hours, the algorithm now works harder to find a close match, so queues can run a bit longer. When they do, the match you get is also looser, because the pool is small.

What PvE-leaning and PvP-leaning lobbies look like

Nobody gets a pure lobby, but the ends of the scale feel very different, and Embark’s own numbers explain why. In its PvE toggle announcement (September 24, 2026), the studio split the population by how they like to play: 37% friendly co-op players (a group that “has grown consistently since launch”), 27% mixed, and 34% pure PvP (stable since launch). More than 70% of friendly players and even 40% of PvP players said they want fewer hostile encounters. With a third of the game on each side, the edges of the scale fill up fast, and the middle is where the surprises live.

If you want someone else to handle the loud part while you do the parts you enjoy, our ARC Raiders raid help team runs blueprint farms, loot runs and extractions on your schedule, and you can skip the raids you would rather not grind.

Note the last column doesn’t depend on the lobby matching you. Embark says kit does not affect matchmaking, so what you bring is purely about surviving the lobby you get. The current loadout meta covers which weapons are actually worth the Coins at each budget, and the solo build in our ARC Raiders skill tree guide shows where your points go.

How to shift your lobbies (and how long it takes)

Pick the lobby you want for each squad size, play consistently toward it, and give it a real sample. Embark calls the shift “gradual” and has never published a round count, so anyone quoting “exactly 10 raids” is guessing. Practical rules that follow from what Embark has confirmed:

• Don’t open fire and don’t third-party in the squad size you want calm. Both count as starting a fight, even a short one.
• Stop surrendering on spawn to “reset.” Low-activity rounds were down-weighted in May, so it does little and wastes your time.
• Keep your PvP in a different squad size. Since 1.36.0 that is the one clean separation the game offers.
• Squad with people who play like you, because every member feeds the squad profile.
• Don’t sandbag your loadout, since kit is not an input. Bringing a grey pistol to “look friendly” just gets you killed by the one Raider who didn’t read the memo.

And the October wrinkle: Embark scheduled a PvE matchmaking toggle test for October 13-20, 2026. In PvE sessions there is zero player damage, solos, duos and trios share the same session, loot value is lower, and several high-tension conditions (Night Raids, Hidden Bunker, Locked Gate, Frigate) are excluded. Embark says your PvPvE matchmaking rating is not affected by PvE sessions, the toggle disappears when the test ends, and there is no promise of a permanent mode.

Where the system falls short

Start with the weakness in this post. Everything in the tables above is built on public statements, because Embark deliberately keeps the formula private so players can’t game it. Nobody outside the studio knows the weighting, the size of your history window, or how the squad profile is aggregated. That includes us.

Second, the community reads far too much into small samples. Five calm raids in a row feels like proof, then one ambush at the extract feels like proof of the opposite. The system is probabilistic by design, the population shifts by hour and region, and even Söderlund called it “not a full science.” Judge it over dozens of rounds, not an evening.

Third, there is a real argument that the sorting has gone too far. A recent thread on r/ArcRaiders makes the case that the game now splits into near-battle-royale lobbies at one end and completely peaceful ones at the other, and that the uncertain middle was what made ARC Raiders special. Embark’s own May notes say it doesn’t want to sand off “the edges that make ARC Raiders what it is,” so expect more tuning in both directions.

Frequently asked questions

Does ARC Raiders still use aggression-based matchmaking?

Yes. Embark calls it playstyle-based matchmaking and has kept tuning it through 2026: separate Solo, Duo and Trio tracking in Live Update 1.36.0 and a test in 1.39.0 where only the fights you start count toward your playstyle.

Does ARC Raiders use skill-based matchmaking?

Not in the classic sense. Virgil Watkins said in January 2026 that the game does not use skill-based or gear-based matchmaking. The May 2026 notes describe a fairness goal (players with a similar chance of succeeding, equal squad sizes) but no public skill rating.

How do I get friendly lobbies in ARC Raiders?

Play the way you want your lobbies to feel, in the squad size you want calm, for a meaningful stretch of rounds. Don’t start fights or third-party others. Changes are gradual, and outside the October PvE toggle test there is no guaranteed PvE lobby.

Does killing someone in self-defense count against my playstyle?

It has counted for less since May 2026. Under the 1.39.0 test that started July 28, defending carries no weight at all, including knocking out a Raider who attacked you first. The squad that lands the first damage, down or knockout is the one that started the fight.

Does playing aggressively in trios affect my solo lobbies?

Not since July 7, 2026. Live Update 1.36.0 tracks your playstyle separately for Solo, Duo and Trio, so each squad size has its own profile.

Does looting downed players or bringing expensive gear change my matchmaking?

No. Embark lists both as myths: matchmaking looks at how you engage with other Raiders, not what you do with their gear afterward, and loadout value is not an input.

So: ARC Raiders matches you on a sliding playstyle scale, tracked separately per squad size, weighted by who starts fights and how serious they get, with no promise of a pure lobby. Play consistently in the squad size you care about and judge it over a long sample. And if you’d rather spend your evenings on the parts of the Rust Belt you enjoy, our team can take the grind: book a squad carry, blueprint farm or loot farm and pick up the rewards when it’s done.